The project
Introducing the Future of Technical Analysis
Every poker player knows which hands win, because somebody counted them. In trading, nobody ever counted. So we did.
The book said it was a good hand
For years I traded patterns I could draw from memory. Hammers, Double bottoms or trendline Breakouts.
I believed in them for one reason. A book said so. And that book said so because an older book had said so.
Some of those trades made money. Many did not. When one failed I always had an excuse ready. Bad timing. A strange week. I entered too early.
Now think about poker for a moment. Every serious player knows the real chances of every hand. Nobody guesses. Somebody sat down and counted millions of hands, and then wrote the numbers down.
I was playing for real money with cards I had never counted.
The Solution
What I have done since then is easy to explain and hard to do.
First we write the pattern in code properly, before we look at any result. If you write the rules later, you can keep changing them until the numbers look good. We do not give ourselves that option.
Then we deal that hand again and again. Every company in the S&P 500, every trading day, for the last thirty years. More than eight million hands so far.
Almost every stock goes up in a rising market, we compare our numbers vs the S&P 500. If the pattern does not work, we also publish it.
A good hand wins at more than one table
Then comes the question almost nobody asks. Does the hand keep winning? In different companies. In different years. In calm markets and in ugly ones.
A pattern that only worked in 2009 and in 2020 is not a good hand.
Most of what we measure does not pass that test. Most of it never did. We publish those results as loudly as the good ones. "This one never worked" is a full article here, not a small note at the bottom of the page.
Maybe you are thinking: if most patterns fail, what is left? A winners short list. But with powerful and deeply studied patterns.
Nobody wins with one hand
I am not going to tell you what the market will do next. But you'll know the odds of every single movement.
I can tell you which of the shapes you were taught have survived thirty years of counting on five hundred companies. And which ones never worked at all.
Some of the answers will annoy you. Others are the difference between amateurs and profesional traders.
The list is of the famous patterns is free. Start there.